The first sign of vulnerability for Ric Keller was in 2006 when he captured 53% of the vote in a contest featuring an opponent whom did not receive DCCC funding. The second sign of vulnerability occurred in August of this year when Keller barely survived a primary challenge against a poorly financed, yet marginally known opponent, mostly due to Keller’s own personal attacks against Todd Long. In fact, had Keller ignored Long, who posed very little threat until Keller sparked the fire, then he most likely would have performed better.
However, the primary brought some discouraging news for Keller: his base in Lake County had largely deserted him. Long had defeated Keller in Eustis, a conservative city favorable to Republicans. The most Republican precinct in Lake County, precinct 32 in Eustis, favored Long over Keller. The narrow victory Keller attained was mostly attributed to him outperfoming Long in Marion County, while not losing Orange County, where most of the eighth district voters are situated.
Keller now faces his third challenge: the narrowing gap between Republicans and Democrats. Outlined below are preliminary voter registration totals for the areas which are situated in the 8th Congressional District:
Lake County
R – 25,505
D – 18,161
O – 9,687
Total Registered: 53,353
Marion County
D – 21,299
R – 21,902
O – 9,227
Total Registered: 52,428
Orange County
D – 117,919
R – 110,284
O – 75,178
Total Registered: 303,381
Osceola County
D – 1,186
R – 2,356
O – 1,384
Total Registered: 4,926
Overall Eighth District
D – 158,565
R – 160,047
O – 95,189
Total Registered: 414,088
The registration gap between Republicans and Democrats has been closing gradually here. The separation is less than 1,500 voters, which has yet to include final book closings, since many registrations, most favorable to Democrats, continue to be processed. This makes the 8th Congressional District one of the toss-up districts this year. Even though the DCCC did not prefer Alan Grayson, nor have they spent here on his behalf, the election here is clearly against Ric Keller. In order to prevail here Keller must achieve three tasks:
– Win overwhelmingly in Lake County, especially Eustis, the conservative base of the district.
– Win in Ocala, which is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.
– Win over independents, women, and Hispanics in Orange County. Women comprise 54% of the electorate in Orange County.
The final task will prove to be the most difficult for Keller. The areas of Orange County where Keller must win are Azalea Park and Union Park, locations which are largely Hispanic and Democratic, yet also have a large number of Hispanics registered as independents. The four precincts countywide with the largest voter registration separation between independent male and female voters are all situated in Azalea Park and Union Park. Below are the four districts and their demographic breakdown based on overall registered voters:
Precinct 316 – Azalea Park. 55% female, 46% Hispanic, 8% African-American, and 1% Asian.
Precinct 323 – Azalea Park/Union Park. 52% female, 45% Hispanic, 7% African-American, and 2% Asian.
Precinct 454 – Union Park. 51% female, 30% Hispanic, 11% African-American, and 5% Asian.
Precinct 546 – Union Park. 48% female, 24% Hispanic, 10% African-American, and 4% Asian.
**The last two are situated in neighboring “corrupt” Feeney territory.
In 2006, all successful statewide Republican candidates won in Precincts 316 and 323, except Harris and Keller. Alex Sink and Charlie Stuart were the only Democrats to win here. While some could say that Harris was a drag on Keller, due to their placement on the ballot, the likelihood is that Keller has been losing independents for some time. In fact, ultra-conservative Bill McCollum, Keller’s own predecessor performed rather well in the two precincts which Keller lost.
Recently Keller has gone on the defensive, calling Grayson an ultra-liberal aligned with Code Pink, a woman’s organization protesting against the war. Not to be outdone, Grayson has done what Long was encouraged to do, bring up Keller’s extra-maritial affair and the divorce that followed. Keller’s attack is clearly designed to win back the base which he lost in the primary and in 2006, yet Grayson’s attack is designed to keep Keller’s base at bay, questioning his family value principles, while also seeking to win over independent women voters. While nasty and unpredictable, due to the backlash which Keller suffered in the primary, Grayson appears to have the more effective strategy at the moment.
In the final analysis the race will be decided by independent women voters and Hispanics. Traditionally, Hispanics, mostly of Puerto Rican origin, have not turned out to vote. However, this year may prove to be the exception. If Hispanics turn out this year, as appears likely, and independent women voters continue turning against Keller, then a pink slip is coming Keller’s direction.
I predict that it has already been mailed. As for Feeney, his may have already been delivered. Expect the NRCC to stop spending on his behalf in the coming week.
I totally agree. Keller has been bleeding support for some time, even before the general when he went back on his term limits pledge. The dude barely beat a primary opponent who spent virtually no money and was once found drunk and sleeping on a park bench.
Grayson has put together some original commercials, and he looks ready to reach into his deep pockets in the general. Don’t look for the NRCC to spend here given Orlando’s expensive market — Keller’s on his own.
This race has fallen under the radar with the other FL races getting attention, but I love our chances here.